Cairns Airport numbers for June were the first time that I can find where passenger numbers came in below May.

A short Melbourne lockdown commenced in June now followed by Sydney which looks far more serious. I’m not sure where that leaves the subsidised airfare scheme. There was a small hopeful flicker in international passengers with the Trans-Tasman bubble.

Typically, June arrivals outnumber departures as we move towards the July peak and school holidays kick in at the end of the month. Which now pushes annual net arrivals to a new high.

Any comparison with 2020 is meaningless so I prefer just a simple monthly comparison with the 2019 pre-covid normal.

There was a statistical note last month from Bill Cummings suggesting domestic passengers above pre-covid levels when adjusted for international passengers who previously arrived on domestic routes. I think also I’d be a bit cautious on the trend at Conus while the Sydney lockdown continues.

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