Electoral Enrolments

Electoral enrolment numbers data is an imperfect indicator of population movements. They are probably though a better indicator if anything since immigration was slammed shut. There is currently a Commonwealth redistribution happening with an additional seat allocated to Victoria and a loss in Western Australia:

Determination of membership entitlement to the House of Representatives: Information Paper

A constitutional quirk is that the allocation between states is based on estimated resident population from ABS while allocation within states is based on electoral enrolment between division. And we thought the USA electoral system was just funny.

The population numbers used for the redistribution were December quarter 2019 on the eve of Covid. Consequently given events since it is possible that the entire redistribution will be reversed after the next election.

Looking at this on a regional Queensland level it is only the Far North in Cairns out of regional North Queensland ex SEQ that has outperformed after Covid in growth of electoral enrolments. Maybe it’s Alan Kohler’s retirement village effect. Monday morning shopping at Smithfield Coles this morning ex Cairns Ironman road closures at the beaches yesterday was intense.

Electoral enrolments 042021

This is Federal divisions where the entire Central Queensland resource region remains over-represented courtesy of defunct population projections. Following previous declines the gains in Leichhardt relative to the Queensland average are also confirmed in state divisions in all of Cairns, Barron River and Mulgrave with a footprint in the Cairns urban area.

Note: AEC is responsible for all enrolments and do it well imho.


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