November JobSeeker numbers could be seen as disappointing with Cairns SA4 underperforming the broader decline: JobSeekers drop almost another 3% in November

Cairns SA4 declined by 420 people for JobSeeker + Youth Allowance (other) which is the lowest monthly decline since the May peak. The larger declines we saw in October, which also followed the return of mutual obligation conditions, when there were falls in every Cairns region SA2 were not repeated and outcomes were more scattered. Change by SA2 since March as a percentage of pre-covid SALM estimated labour force:

To try and scatter plot that on the same basis as the change from March to peak May v the change from May to November:

I have removed Yarrabah from any analysis as it distorts the data, however Yarrabah is the only SA2 where JobSeeker levels are now below March. Kuranda is obviously a standout but the numbers here didn’t peak until later in July.

There was previously intended a further JobSeeker analysis which I haven’t yet got around to which will include factors such as the number of JobSeeker recipients reporting employment income. The number of JobSeekers, not including Youth Allowance, reporting employment earnings increased by 5.4% in November while total JobSeeker recipients in Australia fell by 2.8%. We don’t get this data at state or regional level.

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