SQM free data update for November doesn’t much change any of the prevailing local narrative.
Weekly listings data, as distinct from vacancies, has mostly ticked up which would probably be expected with border reopening and also a time of year when relocations are common.
While apartment vacancy rates in the inner capital cities have escalated during covid in a previous post I referenced listings in Coffs Harbour, half way between Newcastle and Tweed Heads, as an indicator to watch. Rental vacancies in the main coastal urban centres along this coast of Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbour, Ballina are almost non-existant at 0.1% – 0.2%.
SQM commentary from Louis Christopher:
SQM Research today has revealed the national residential rental vacancy rate remained stable at 2.1% over the month of November 2020. The total number of vacancies Australia-wide is now 72,879 vacant residential properties. This time last year, the national vacancy rate was higher at 2.2%.
Which is interesting given that the estimated vacancy rate is flat or below a year ago while estimated population growth has plummeted absent overseas migration. So a relevant report this week: NHFIC releases first flagship housing report
New supply is expected to exceed new demand by around 127,000 dwellings in 2021, and 68,000 dwellings in 2022. Cumulative new supply is expected to be around 93,000 higher than new demand by 2025, although sensitivity analysis demonstrates this could halve with slightly more optimistic population growth assumptions.
Which is why questions around population growth and movements remain a critical known unknown.