Election Notes #2

 

The wash-up in 2020 is maybe less complex but more profound than the last 2017 election: Quick election review for FNQ

As a resident of Barron River I have now been wrong twice in my opinion of who would win. It wasn’t only me though as punters backed Linda Cooper for the LNP into a strong favourite on Sportsbet as the first and most likely seat to fall. Both times I have heard adverse feedback on Craig Crawford. Never mind just whack a corflute of Anastacia alongside every Craig.

So Barron River remains a bellwether for government. At least I got that part right that if the LNP couldn’t win Barron River they couldn’t win. It also confirmed Barron River is in many ways SEQ in FNQ. Greens didn’t shift their vote much but at 12.9% remains the highest outside SEQ.

I always like to look at the minor party votes as an underlying indicator. 2017 (linked above) I graphed the inverse correlation between Greens and PHON by Barron River booth. That correlation has been sort of squashed by the collapse of the PHON vote. Collapse of election day voting booth numbers also make this probably no longer worthwhile. 

There has been comment on the contribution of Scott Morrison to the LNP campaign. The LNP campaign in Barron River heavily featured Warren Entsch including radio advertisements on crime and billboard advertising. The strongest feature for LNP in Barron River was Linda Cooper as a popular local candidate who was nowhere during the campaign period and almost hidden behind Sam Someone in Cairns. As an amateur Gruen enthusiast can I suggest this was a mistake.

What should stand out is the Covid-19 impact on older conservative PHON voters, most transparent in probably the biggest election surprise in Hervey Bay. From Caloundra to Clifton Beach older PHON voters shifted to the ALP. Those on record for premature border openings were the biggest losers of the election.

Local roundup ALP also retained Cairns but this is not the surprise of Barron River. The demographics of Cairns electorate are strongly favorable to Labor and the result last time was confused by the defection of Pyne as an independent following a previous LNP interruption following the Newman Government landslide of 2012. 

Curtis Pitt way too big in Mulgrave for ALP. KAP stood a candidate here with a footprint overlapping with Kennedy. LNP first preference was 24% and Curtis just over 50% on the initial tally. How big is the personal vote here?

Cook is still in the undecided column. KAP also stood here with a footprint overlap with Kennedy. ECQ have done an initial indicative 2CP tally between KAP and ALP which has Cynthia Liu ahead but is wrong. Antony Green has done an adjusted 2CP on ALP v LNP which should improve her position. 

 

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