Tropical Cyclone Outlook

BOM last week posted Australian Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021:

The Eastern region outlook has a 67% chance of more tropical cyclones than average, with a 33% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. The average number of tropical cyclones for this region is four, and about a quarter of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region make landfall. Outlook accuracy for this region is low.

The Northern region outlook suggests a near-average number of tropical cyclones with a 57% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 43% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, the Northern region experiences between 2 and 3 cyclones. About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region impact coastal regions. Outlook accuracy for this region is very low.

The Gulf of Carpentaria and western Cape is included in the Northern Region. With a La Nina event in place always worth keeping an eye on the Weekly Tropical Climate Note posted every Tuesday:

All surveyed international climate models predict La Niña will persist until at least February 2021. Climate models have recently indicated the peak strength of the current La Niña, based on sea surface temperatures (SST) across the tropical Pacific Ocean, may be relatively strong. While La Niña and its associated impacts are unique from event to event, there is normally a relationship between the strength of the event and the severity of its impacts. As such, there is the potential for significant impacts across much of Australia in the coming months if the current La Niña strengthens at the predicted rate.

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