Election Notes #1

Updated enrolment statistics ahead of the Queensland election presented here for key FNQ divisions since the previous 2017 election:

Qld Enrolment 0920

Black dotted line is the Queensland division average. Barron River is the most marginal. The population growth disparity is apparent with Barron River overtaking Cairns since the last election.

The decline in the first quarter of 2020 for Cairns and Barron River is a curious phenomenon. This mostly happened before the full onset of Covid restrictions. It is replicated in Townsville with the bottom four Queensland declines in this period being in urban Cairns and Townsville.

What’s that bump at the start of the series? This is because:

The close of rolls occurred on 3 November 2017. The Election roll recorded the Cairns State Districts as having 35,745 electors. From the first close of rolls to 6pm on the day before polling day electors could update their details. This created changes and additions to the Election roll, therefore the increase is represented on the results page for the State Election. Electors who update their details between the first close of rolls and 6pm on the day prior to polling day can vote for either the address they were enrolled at the 3 November 2017 or the new enrolled address. If the Elector chooses to vote for their new enrolled address they must complete a declaration vote and they are unable to vote for their former address as the system prohibits the elector to use both voting entitlements.

ECQ is a dog’s breakfast of incompetence and I’m still trying to chase monthly data gaps from early this year when ECQ was in meltdown during the local election fiasco and they even managed to Gazette the same monthly data twice. What this means is that some of the data on the ECQ results page for such as voter turnout is wrong as it includes people counted twice on the roll for the purpose of the election but can’t vote twice.

Turnout and population growth may matter. Previous post on Queensland Enrolment Growth has continued with enrolment growth continuing recovery well above 2% in the year to September for Queensland.

On population spare a thought for the voters of Coomera. The redistribution prior to the 2017 election placed Coomera under quota, which is the state average, to allow room for growth and projected growth to 2023 which would maintain below the 10% variation limit from average quota. Coomera is currently 25.48% over quota and rising.

Guess where roads and traffic are an election issue?

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