Regional building approvals for June 2020 showed a weak trend: Trend building approvals hit record low in Cairns in June. I think we need to look at this related to trends in population growth:

I have taken the liberty here to derive an annual average from the Conus Trend as the most appropriate representation on easily available data. Which means I was too lazy to go back and compile data which wouldn’t make a difference anyway. I have multiplied these annual residential approvals by 2.5 which is the average persons per household at the 2016 census.

What this shows is that the decline in trend building approvals is not inconsistent with the decline in estimated population growth. The most recent Estimated Resident Population from the ABS is to June 30 2019.

I’m continuing to look at the total value of all building data previously posted: De-complexifying recent trends in the Cairns economy

This is the non-residential proportion of total building approvals. I have removed most of the Greater Brisbane SA4 regions for clarity except the City and also removed the increasingly irrelevant Rest of Qld category from ABS in favor of an amalgamated SEQ v The Bush.

Note: Building approvals are not construction such as roads and don’t necessarily translate into building. The Nova project boosted the Cairns residential numbers in 2018. WCG posted half yearly results to the Singapore Exchange last week which made no reference to either Nova or Cairns. This wouldn’t materially change the trend comparison.

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