Jobs Data Musings
Maybe we should now invent a new TV quiz game. Lets call it guess the data series:
Actually I was just too lazy to bother further with it as I didn’t think it was worth the time. This is weekly payrolls from ABS by SA4 in Queensland indexed to 100 at March 14 which was the Saturday after Friday when it all went wild. I have no idea how the indexed weekly big red dotted line for all Queensland SA4 comes in that far below the median Queensland SA4 but never mind.
We should also note that this weekly data is not seasonally adjusted. Cairns is the green line second from bottom above Gold Coast which is consistent with most data I have seen.
So much data that even the oracle of Cairns economists appears to have made a very basic (paywalled) error: Far North economy suffers as unemployment rate soars to new heights
Bill Cummings has here compared the wrong data. I’m astounded that such a basic error could have been made. Previous issues with this data: Trend Jobseekers continue to fall despite rises in unemployed
Anyway, lets look at some other completely alternative data on activity:
What’s that skip? Queensland and South Australia are top?
Bill Cummings lost the last vestiges of credibility for me with his financial projections of a de-amalgamated Mareeba Shire for his mate Mick Borzi. Not only was it pie in the Sky stuff, it was also incongruent with Mick’s de-amalgamation slogan of “Never mind the money ….” of which I am reminded twice yearly when rates are due.