Cyclone Season Outlook

The BOM updated the cyclone season outlook earlier in October:

The Eastern region outlook shows a below-average season is most likely, with a 43% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 57% chance of fewer. About a quarter of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region make landfall. Outlook accuracy for this region is low.

Doubtless should there be any deviation from the headline (modestly) below average prediction with low accuracy there will be outrage that the BOM was wrong. Mind you I remain confused by why there is a 43% chance of more than average cyclones and a 57% chance lower which seems to exclude the chance of average?

Anyway, there is a nomenclature synopsis at the NQ Register : A cyclone season outlook with a difference

This brings back to memory the excellent demolition from Paul Fritjers: How to lie with statistics: the case of female hurricanes

Note: Naming is related to cyclones which form in the Australian zone. Yasi was formed and named in the Fijian zone.

 

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