We typically associate Cairns with the Federal electorate of Leichhardt. That is increasingly less so. The division of Kennedy has been intruding into the southern suburbs of Cairns for the last two redistributions because the population of Kennedy continues to decline relative to Leichhardt. Leichhardt is unique in only having a single boundary so there is only one way to balance numbers.
The most recent redistribution took out Bentley Park into Kennedy. The numbers as presented in the AEC determination based on electors at 6 January 2017:
This is SA2 so breaking this down by regional SA4: 60% of Kennedy electors are within Cairns SA4. 16% of Kennedy electors lived in the Cairns southern suburbs based on the new electoral boundaries. But wait there’s more!
The AEC projections there to 2021 look rather suspect. Since the last election ABS numbers indicate a population decline in Mt Isa and population increase in the Southern Suburbs which combined would indicate a total net relative shift in Kennedy including the Bentley Park annexation of 6-7 K electors to the Cairns suburbs from the outback.
Does this matter. Katter 2016 first preference by location for some larger booths:
Mt Isa 47%
Mission Beach 27%*
Katter will be returned because everyone expects it and preference flows but he is not unassailable particularly as this trend continues with Cairns South the population growth centre of Kennedy. KAP candidates performed quite poorly in 2016 in both the neighbouring electorates of Leichhardt and Herbert.
*Mission Beach is included specifically for Pete Faulkner at Conus and is also the top Greens booth in Kennedy at 17%.