Population projections

The Queensland Government Statistician’s Office has updated population projections for local governments areas and statistical regions from SA4 to SA2 level. There are a few posts and comments on this floating around and Pete has the basic numbers for the region at Conus: Cairns projected growth

At SA4 level Nick Behrens tweeted a regional SA4 comparison graph. There are a few issues with regional comparisons between urban areas and SA4 but what I would look at in the weirdly organised QGSO collection of reports and files is this one:

population countdown

This graph is numbers of people and not percentage growth. I can’t find any information for download that relates specifically to this graph in the convoluted QGSO web nightmare but haven’t looked too hard.

There are two questions that stand out for me here:

  1. Net Overseas Migration estimates compounded appear to be less disparate between regions as a percentage than recent history would suggest but detailed numbers would be good.
  2. Intrastate migration is negative in areas without lifestyle proximity to Brisbane except Townsville. I would like to know the assumptions behind that.


There will inevitably be another response some time from Bill Cummings on this topic. While he typically raises a few good points his approach related to long term historical averages is also questionable: Cairns – Leading Population Growth in Northern Australia

Previous post: Population & Migration





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