Parsing the pokie cycle
It’s monthly EGM (pokie) stats time again in Queensland. In September the Cairns SA4 region continued to outperform the state in losing money. I will leave the internal local data for now and look for broadly at Queensland regions.
This is growth in EGM win/loss for the September quarter over the last two years:
SA4 1 yr % 2 yr %
Central Qld 7.6% 4.4%
Cairns 7.2% 8.2%
Mackay 5.9% 18.7%
The Bush 4.4% 7.6%
Outback 4.1% 12.8%
Townsville 3.9% 6.1%
Queensland 3.0% 5.9%
Greater Brisbane 2.8% 5.6%
Sunshine Coast 2.8% 4.6%
SEQ 2.3% 5.1%
Wide Bay 1.8% 3.5%
Downs Maranoa 1.7% 10.8%
Gold Coast 0.7% 3.6%
Toowoomba -0.7% 1.1%
SEQ = Greater BNE + Gold Coast + Sunshine Coast; The Bush = Queensland – SEQ
Maybe graph that for context. September quarter 2018 growth over the previous 2017 year:
Yes, everything above the Queensland average is to the north. This also applies to Outback (including Cape York) and my derivation of The Bush which are both weighted to the north in population.
There are lots of factors influencing these numbers at various levels however it’s difficult not to discern a predominant cyclical economic component. Mackay and Central Queensland in particular are both recovering from previous falls. The data posted by OLGR is only for the past three years.
Note: Mackay growth is also coincident with declines in both venues and operational EGM’s over the period. These numbers have increased in Cairns over the same period.
Note2: This is not intended as positive comment on pokies. This can be both a positive indicator of discretionary spending and at the same time an economic and social negative. These are not contradictory.
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