Douglas pokie boom

Monthly Electronic Gaming Machine (EGM) stats for July and while Cairns maintains a comfortable lead in player losses a sustained recovery in Townsville has annual growth neck and neck ay 4.9%.  Ahead of total Queensland growth at 4.1%. This is local council areas ex – casinos:

EGM July2018_1

EGM July2018_2

A curiosity is that growth for Cairns SA4 ex CRC is running ahead of CRC. A quick look through the other local councils reveals Douglas Shire as a standout with in July up 30.1% on the previous year and rolling annual growth now up 17.6%.

EGM July2018_3

EGM July2018_4

The monthly growth numbers are extremely volatile from year to year and Easter again comes into play on that with non-trading Good Friday moving from April last year to March in 2018. However, underlying this is that operational EGM pokie numbers reported in Douglas have increased by 22% since June last year from 145 to 177. Also the inclusion of an additional venue from 7 to 8.

Not sure where this expansion has been with currently listed details of sites and approved EGM’ in Douglas:

BARRIER REEF TAVERN 12
CENTRAL HOTEL (PORT DOUGLAS) 15
COURT HOUSE HOTEL, PORT DOUGLAS 30
IRONBAR 25
MOSSMAN HOTEL 16
MOSSMAN MEMORIAL BOWLS CLUB INC. 46
PORT DOUGLAS & DISTRICT COMBINED CLUBS INC. 30
POST OFFICE HOTEL MOSSMAN 12
Total Approved EGMs: 186

This could make an interesting case study given the region is relatively contained from surrounding competition. A keen punter would have to drive down to Palm Cove Tavern to find the next venue.

The increase in EGM pokie numbers has occurred progressively in a few stages over the past year so there could still be some upside in the 17.6% annual growth as the total increase has still to flow through for a full year.

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Palm Cove: unoccupied?

The equivalent Tuesday of this week in August two years ago was the 2016 census. Among questions that linger is whether there were really 30.1% of private dwellings in Palm Cove unoccupied on census night?

Palm Cove

This isn’t too far above locations like the City and Port Douglas at 26.4% and 25%. It is also almost unchanged from 2011 census at 31.0%. Adjacent Clifton Beach is 15.9%. Typically around 10%-11% of private dwellings are unoccupied in Australia on census night.

Private dwellings does not include commercial tourism accommodation where at this time of year occupancy would be expected to be above these numbers anyway. Perhaps a clue is in the data quality statement:

In some cases, it can be difficult to determine whether dwellings are private (PDs) or non-private (NPDs). For example, blocks of self contained apartments or units may provide a mix of short term hotel-style accommodation (i.e. an NPD) or long term apartment (normally PDs) accommodation.

It just seems like a very high number to me particularly for the seasonal high time of year.

Note: these numbers are for smaller state suburb areas.

RTA Data Review

Posting of the Residential Tenancy Authority rental data for Queensland has been delayed for the June quarter. I did send a query and really appreciate the response from RTA who are reviewing the format and have forwarded the North Queensland data in the current excel file format.

 

RTA June Quarter 2018 2RTA June Quarter 2018 1

Points to note:

No sign of a recovery yet in Townsville.

Mackay continues to recover.

Cairns has been flat as a tack the last year or so.

There is also interesting data in here which I always intend to follow up with deeper analysis but never do. I can’t yet find any positive indication from new bonds lodged in Cairns.