Cairns Airport 2017: slow out of the blocks

The Cairns Airport numbers for March include some positive PR spin on international routes. This has been a feature in recent months. It can’t disguise a slow start to the year below expectations following a positive tourism narrative all through 2016.

AirportBlog

The growth slowdown has been quite sharp on the nominal numbers. However Q1 is impacted by seasonal lunar factors and the 2016 leap year which make analysis more opaque. There was some controversy around Chinese New Year flights and related tourism numbers. Comparative BITRE data posted for key domestic routes in February is quite poor for Cairns. This is the 30 largest city pairs for February:

City-Pair Feb 2016 Feb 2017 % Change
19 Hobart – Sydney  49 154  52 456 6.7
30 Melbourne – Sunshine Coast  26 336  27 949 6.1
26 Sunshine Coast – Sydney  36 750  38 796 5.6
8 Hobart – Melbourne  129 564  136 043 5.0
12 Canberra – Melbourne  83 127  86 904 4.5
23 Brisbane – Newcastle  41 775  43 145 3.3
22 Adelaide – Perth  46 243  47 412 2.5
29 Ballina – Sydney  28 519  28 973 1.6
25 Brisbane – Canberra  39 457  39 597 0.4
2 Brisbane – Sydney  351 922  349 746 -0.6
7 Adelaide – Sydney  145 720  144 427 -0.9
28 Melbourne – Newcastle  32 771  32 401 -1.1
20 Brisbane – Mackay  49 661  49 091 -1.1
5 Adelaide – Melbourne  186 480  182 535 -2.1
4 Gold Coast – Sydney  212 763  207 359 -2.5
24 Brisbane – Rockhampton  40 954  39 862 -2.7
9 Gold Coast – Melbourne  138 607  134 822 -2.7
14 Launceston – Melbourne  78 260  76 088 -2.8
15 Canberra – Sydney  77 293  75 093 -2.8
18 Adelaide – Brisbane  59 094  56 910 -3.7
1 Melbourne – Sydney  743 202  713 450 -4.0
17 Brisbane – Townsville  65 563  62 812 -4.2
10 Perth – Sydney  134 203  128 175 -4.5
13 Cairns – Sydney  82 414  78 064 -5.3
3 Brisbane – Melbourne  253 989  240 455 -5.3
21 Cairns – Melbourne  50 771  47 655 -6.1
16 Brisbane – Perth  72 178  67 530 -6.4
6 Melbourne – Perth  158 809  145 066 -8.7
11 Brisbane – Cairns  104 094  93 632 -10.1
27 Karratha – Perth  38 595  33 093 -14.3

Brisbane – Cairns is a standout there surrounded by resource related declines. The leap year in 2016 will take a bit under 3% (percentage points) off growth numbers for all airports. No excuses in April.

Graphs and most recent BITRE data updated at Cairns Airport.

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Postcode Mostcode

At the Cairns Post via Courier-Mail: Queensland has top two postcodes for dole recipients in Australia

CAIRNS and Bundaberg have more people on the dole than any other area in Australia, but one federal MP says some people snub work that is available.

The Queensland economic divide is made clear in new figures that show regional cities take out the top five areas for the sheer number of people on the dole.

A breakdown by postcode shows Bundaberg has 4465 people taking unemployment benefits, more than any other postcode in the country.

Second was Cairns, which had more than 4353 dole recipients, ­followed by Liverpool, near Sydney.

Parts of Toowoomba, Hervey Bay and Mackay rounded out the five highest areas in Queensland by postcode for the number of Newstart recipients.

 

Guess which postcodes have among the highest populations in Queensland and Australia? Give up?

DSS Payment Demographic Data

Building Approvals Data

Building approvals for February were released by ABS earlier this month. I hadn’t updated my own files for some time and I’m a bit circumspect about some of the data here. This was noted in the previous January edition of CairnsWatch:

Building approval figures previously issued for the Cairns Regional Council area for the period July 2015 to September 2016 have been revised significantly upwards by the ABS, with the result that the declining building approvals trend previously reported by CairnsWatch for this period is nowhere near as sharp. However the post-September figures, for October and November 2016, remain just as lacklustre as before, and just as enigmatically indicative of a plummeting trend. At face value, building approvals for Cairns have fallen in trend terms by 51.7% between November 2015 and November 2016. However this may or may not be real!

I currently can’t reconcile some of the monthly numbers I now have with what has been previously graphed at CairnsWatch for particular months, so am uncertain if this can be attributed to further revisions or I should check my own files. Anyway, this is my currently updated Cairns SA4 regions with Conus Trend overlay:

Approvals1

Current data updated anyway at Building Approvals and commentary on most recent monthly numbers at Conus: Little joy for the North in the Regional Building Approvals data

Productivity Commission: Transitioning Regional Economies

Transitioning Regional Economies

Commissioned Report

A 12-month study into the geographic impacts of the transition of the Australian economy following the resources investment boom.

  • Initial report 21 Apr 2017
  • Final report Dec 2017

Initial report 21 Apr 2017

The Commission was directed to submit an initial report to the Australian Government in April 2017. The report was publicly released on 21 April 2017.

Submissions are due by Monday 31 July 2017.

Read the initial report

Final report Dec 2017

The final report is expected to be provided to the Australian Government in December 2017.

The purpose of this study is to examine the regional geography of Australia’s economic transition since the mining investment boom, and to identify those regions and localities that face significant challenges in successfully transitioning to a more sustainable economic base as the investment phase is completed. The study will also consider the factors that influence their capacity to adapt to changes in economic circumstances.

More detailed information can be found in the terms of reference.